Consulting for the preparation of the impact evaluation report of the IDB's education portfolio (EPIAR 1.0)

Description

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is calling on consulting firms specialized in evidence synthesis, meta-analysis and impact evaluation methodologies for the structuring and delivery of the EPIAR 1.0 report.

The main objective of the consultancy is to quantify the likely impact of the Bank's education portfolio through a highly rigorous systematic review, projecting the effect sizes on the projects in the portfolio and analyzing the patterns of institutional execution that determine the real effectiveness of operations in school systems.

1. Thematic scope and lines of intervention analysed
Six axes of educational policy: Systematized evaluation and research will necessarily cover the following strategic lines of the Education Division: Educational infrastructure; Teachers (training, selection, professional development and leadership); Curriculum and learning assessment; Educational management and governance; Access, permanence and trajectories; and EdTech (educational technology).

Geographic and socioeconomic focus: The documentary search will focus on experimental and quasi-experimental evidence from middle-income countries, with strict priority given to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Evidence from OECD countries will be integrated only if it is methodologically relevant and applicable to the regional context.

IDB portfolio universe: The mapping and projection of impacts will be executed on 30 projects closed during the period 2018–2025, distributed in 15 countries and with 111 classified operational objectives, in addition to the relevant active portfolio. The consultancy does not include the collection of primary data or field evaluations.

2. Methodological rigor and statistical tools
PRISMA Standard 2020: All systematic literature reviews must strictly comply with the international criteria of the PRISMA statement. It is a mandatory requirement to publicly register the six technical protocols on the PROSPERO platform before starting searches in the databases.

Random-effects meta-analysis: Extract and unify effect sizes using the Hedges' g estimator. The analytical model should report 95% confidence intervals, assess heterogeneity (I², τ²) and explicitly diagnose publication bias using funnel plots and the Egger test.

Monte Carlo simulation: For the projection of aggregate impacts at the portfolio level (adapting the IFAD12 methodology), statistical uncertainty will not be presented as point data, but will be propagated by stochastic simulations to produce robust credibility intervals.

Bundling Effect: To evaluate the combined and sequential impact of interventions in multicomponent projects, determining which combinations of educational programs maximize learning outcomes and school retention.

3. Gap mapping and transfer for Track 2
Evidence Gap Map: Construct a two-dimensional matrix (intervention lines × indicators × execution dimensions) to classify the global literature into three levels: robust evidence, heterogeneous/weak evidence, and untested configurations that the IDB operates but the international literature does not record.

Design of the strategic bridge: The gap map will act as the direct analytical input to structure the selection criteria, the evaluability matrix and the prioritization of the active projects that will be part of the Bank's next phase of evaluations (Track 2).

4. Execution schedule and key products
The project will be developed within a strict period of 6 months under the following delivery milestones:

Month 1 (Output 1 — Work Plan and Protocols): Delivery of the adapted methodological framework, the 6 PRISMA-P protocols ready and formally registered in PROSPERO, the master matrix of the portfolio and the editorial structure of the report.

Months 2 to 4 (Outputs 2 and 3 — Synthesis and Interim Analysis): Final data extraction, bias control, generation of forest plots, and execution of IFAD12 projections on exposed beneficiaries of the education portfolio.

Month 5 (Output 4 — EPIAR 1.0 Draft): Full integration of meta-analyses per line and submission of the outline with the evaluability matrix for Track 2 for internal review of the Bank.

Month 6 (Outputs 5 and 6 — Final Report and Closure): Incorporation of external peer review comments, consolidation of complete technical annexes (search strategies, flowcharts), and formal presentation of results to the Education Division.

Note: Interested companies should review the requirements on the BEO Bidder Portal.