Assessing Suriname's oil and gas sector market conditions, profitability outlook, and stranded assets fiscal risks and opportunities

Description

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is seeking a consulting firm to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Suriname's oil and gas sector. The primary goal is to identify and quantify fiscal risks and opportunities stemming from global energy transition dynamics, particularly the risk of "stranded assets"—investments that may lose value prematurely due to decarbonization policies and market shifts.

1. Diagnosis of transition risk exposure
The consultancy will establish a baseline for Suriname’s economic vulnerability:

Exposure indicators: Proposing specific transition risk indicators to measure how dependent national fiscal revenue is on the oil and gas sectors.

Competitive analysis: Mapping current and pipeline investments while comparing Suriname’s production costs against global competitors to determine price sensitivity.

Structural mapping: Identifying technological and policy transformations, both globally and nationally, that could destabilize the energy production sector.

2. Fiscal modeling and scenario analysis
Using Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods, the firm will model various futures for Suriname’s economy:

Global scenarios: Assessing market dynamics under Business-as-Usual (BAU), Accelerated Energy Transition, and Volatile Market conditions.

Quantification of impact: Modeling the potential fiscal impact of stranded assets and changes in capital flows for state-owned enterprises, the government, and private investors.

Tipping points: Identifying critical thresholds in market prices and cost structures that would trigger significant fiscal disruptions.

3. Early warning framework and policy design
The project will deliver actionable tools for decision-makers:

Warning signals: Developing an analytical framework to identify leading indicators that precede the materialization of stranded assets, based on international case studies.

Policy levers: Mapping fiscal instruments to mitigate risks, such as diversifying revenue streams or implementing green growth strategies.

Mitigation strategy: Drawing a complete set of recommendations to manage exposure while capturing potential benefits from a transition to a decarbonized economy.

Note: Interested firms must review the specific registration requirements and phase-structured deliverables in the BEO Bidders Portal.