Developing an analytical framework to quantify compounding effects of climate hazards

Description

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is seeking a university or research institution to develop a pioneering analytical framework to measure "compounding effects" in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This study moves beyond single-hazard analysis to understand how consecutive or co-occurring events—such as a drought followed by a heatwave and agricultural pests—amplify economic losses and physical damage.

Key components of this consultancy include:

1. Characterizing multi-hazard complexity
The research will define a framework to quantify how climate risks interact. This includes identifying amplification factors (where the combined impact is greater than the sum of individual parts) and persistent effects (where one hazard weakens a system's resilience to subsequent events).

2. Economic modeling and pilot in the Corredor Seco
The framework will be piloted in the agricultural sector of the Corredor Seco (Central American Dry Corridor). Key tasks include:

Data integration: Harmonizing climate datasets (e.g., CHIRPS, ERA5) with national agricultural statistics.

Economic translation: Converting physical damage into metrics such as cumulative loss multipliers to inform fiscal planning and disaster risk management.

3. Open-source methodology and policy design
To ensure the framework serves as a regional public good, the consultancy must adhere to:

Reproducibility: All code must be developed using open-source software (e.g., R or Python) and shared under IDB-approved licenses.

Actionable results: The findings will support the design of adaptive social protection, early warning systems, and the identification of financial instruments for climate adaptation.

Note: Interested institutions must carefully review the registration requirements in the BEO Bidders Portal.